Play of the day! I got lucky today that I covered thinking $3 may hold for a while before decides the trend. Had I kept some shares left I would very likely get myself caught in MR's situation which would be adding way up to the sky.
2 damages/mistakes incurred here:
1) shorting thinking it may double top. Without respecting the relative vol indicator. Despite of everything I been thru I still trade reckless sometimes.That relative volume surge should be BUY signal!!!!
2)Despite of the huge volume I shorted thinking it wouldn't make new high but instead stuff and pull!! How stupid that is!!!! Instead It breakout and pulled and that led me to think this is the type of play you need to short breakout and buy/cover breakdown which led me to the next mistake as following:
I shorted into $4.30ish breakout at 12:30am. I had escape plan in my mind!! If the volume stays on and it started gearing I would cover. Turned out I was wrong for the 3rd time. I covered and went out for lunch. I crossed my fingers and wishing that the trend hold until 2:30pm so I can do one more EOD fade short. Instead big washout occurred at 1:30pm which led me to think hmm maybe it won't breakout HOD. Maybe it would start gearing towards HOD and get stuffed then pulled. Turned out I was dead on!!!! $4.50 lvl seems lots of volume battling so I started sizing in. Bids stacked up and that action tells me every shorts panicking and started to covering but the reality is very few volume hitting the asks so I shorted more. I ended up having 15000 shares with $4.52 avg. I told myself if the next pull holds I would downsize if not cover all. Glad it worked out but the action was still squeezable so I covered all. Left $2k on the table but I did alright.
This is not easy play and maybe I should have downsized since it's been holding above VWAP the whole time. The thesis that kept me in the position was 1)bad news 2)Volume of each push is equivalent and couldn't breakout morning high. So I thought it would be like NSPR goes like push fail, push fail, push fail then boom collapse. Unfortunately I was wrong so I covered my full position and flipped to long but having this strange feeling that it's not good long so I sold. Gradually as you trade more, feeling & intuition play huge role than real price action. Glad I sold and I was ready to ss pops but no pops so I was thinking maybe no buying power and it could go straight down so I chased 2k shares then boom red candle so I chased another 2k shares.
Not good entry but player like this it's hard/impossible to have perfect entry unless you are willing to experience turbulence on the front side without knowing where the top is. At least now I know the top is there and I am in the backside. Feeling comfirtable holding it thru down the road.
Like SPU, made money long and short. Just perfect trades!!! sold my long position after spotting weakness/selling pressure. flipped short BUT couldn't get filled as much as I wanted. This is the type of play you should have entered the order a little above HOD. This is typical breakout fakeout short. Once you missed it it's extremely hard to get filled!!! You must be a step ahead of time!!!Again always have escape plan!!!!!
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