Usually in the past I would screw up on this either on long or short side. this is the setup exactly like LEI and ZFGN on the first day running earlier. When I found it it was already up 60% on thin volume and hanging just above the VWAP. From my experience a lot of newbie short sellers would start pouring in and got squeezed hardcore like I did on LEI 3 months ago. This time I bought it and kept my position small and close eyes on it. $4.65 over/under as my stop loss level. Sold way too early.
On the short side saw huge and constant bidders refreshing at $7.50 level so was very confused at that time. The reason I initiated my entry at $7.40 was b/c the stock had fast and big pullback when it hit $7.00 which tells me that sellers started coming in. So I thought this would very much do a piercing through resistance fake out breakout which freak everyone out and started pulling below it. Gladly I was right on that. Very similar kind of runup with SZYM yesterday but this one is much more volatile so the KEY is having patience and waiting for the signs before sizing in! Covered too early b/c again huge bidders sulking up the orders got me confused and afraid the momentum would reverse. Could have done much better b/c I had very good entry point so could let it workout.
the 2nd chart by Dan makes good point. Say the stock was hanging around above $6.00 You gotta wait for it pop to $6.50 to enter the position and if it was trading at $5.50, you wait for $6.00. Half and whole dollar mark does have psychological impact to people's decision making and the impact gets exaggerated in the morning. That $6.50 to $7.20 stuffing action freaked me out. Therefore like Michail Shakin said, the KEY is the "ENTRY"! Rather miss than being early!!!
Knowing the fact that EPE got lots of bagholders and it seemed pretty toppy at $6.80 and had I had shares to short I would short at $6.60, 6.70 or so. Had I shorted it, I don't know if I would get out. Looking back it's a bad short b/c No.1 it was midday slow running instead of parabolic and No.2 it was hanging not far above VWAP.
Experience tells me ONLY short midday para. or waiting for the Peak gets tested and retested before size in with set risk. That's the toughest part of trading, Knowing what to do but if i have position my action may not comply.
CPXX is a tough one and I couldn't trade it due to margin requirement but even if I could I would probably stay away from it. When the stock hit big percentage gain and big volume the case gets too complicated. Rather miss than make money b/c it's just not worth it.
Like I said yesterday, never touch large cap, ETF and ETN. They are casino games!
Lesson:
Even though I made money today but I was deeply concerned because if things went wrong what would I do??!!!!! You never know what you would do when you were in the position!!!! As far as I know the only way to battle it is keeping position small and cut the position quickly the moment you see it wrong. Do it thoughtlessly. Think of every trade will go against you so you already mentally prepared for the worst.
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