-things become crystal clear when not trading it. I cam remain 100% objective and judging the direction of the movement, analyzing the ideal entry and exit point.
-Had I had the ability to trade it I would probably fuck up again due to my bad entries and stubborness. Thing thing was trending very well through the pre-market session and no pullback yet so shorting parabolic at the open makes sense but the question is at which price lvl should I put my order in. Definitely not trying to pick the top so my only shot is focusing on secondary spike which I saw big sellers at $4.00 and $4.05 previously so very likely I will put my order in at $4.04 for easy filling BUT the recent market has been on fire and there are lots of chasers out there!!!! with knowing that my try point should be 10-30 cents above the reasonable entry point-$4.05. But again shorting parabolic has tremendous risk involved because you don't know how high it could go, this time it went to $4.30 next time it could went to $5.00 or even $5.50, $6.00. I guess the most appropriate way to play it was keeping my initial size small -500shares at $4.04 and immidiatly putting 1000 shares at $4.49 so end up having 1500 shares at $4.34. In hindsight it is always seems very easy. Another way of doing it like Nate said using half and whole number as adding mark say shorting 500 shares at $4.04 and adding 1000 shares at $4.49 and 2000 shares at $4.98 and 4000 shares at $5.48 and so on and forth. The real problem of doing it was if it went moonshot you are going to end up in a pretty nasty situation. This strategy reminds me of once OHGI went from $1ish to $3 and stayed there for couple hrs. Therefore it's important to check the float count and no. of short interest. Any player with float less than 10 million shares is not worth doing such. Statistically speaking 95% of times this strategy works. But you can't be rigid and practice it scientifically, you should always look at the chart and make decision based on the actual scenario. If massive overhead sellers exit, lower the adding point! Generally speaking shorting into speedup action plays out profitable most of the time. As Michail Shakin said, "the most important piece of the puzzle that most people overlook is the "ENTRY". It dictates your risk, exit and psychology and win ratio!!!! It has to hit the level you want usually a little absurd than most people perceive it in order to initiate the position. It's either your entry/trade or no trade!!!
-VWAP in this case insert short bias to all the traders shorted it. People with look at it and say well it's far below the morning high and hanging around below the VWAP with fading volume and this turd were up nearly 100% I will just hold my short.
-I didn't trade today because I blew up my account yesterday so from my perspective this thing has 50/50 to go. Remember one thing!!! the uptrend still holds!!!!!! As long as the uptrend is held, it's bullish! simple as that. Time stop loss is much more important in this case because given 20 min this thing was holding up!!!I mentioned earlier Had I traded it I would hold it and got squeezed and got burned. Starting today, I am going to insert 15 min rule especially in the morning session!!!!! In 15 min period of time if it doesn't do what I want, I get the fuck out!!! No question is asked!
-Patience is your worst enemy once you are in the position. It got me into troubles countless of times in the past. Because of patience I turned winners into losers, good days into bad days. Remember that you are daytrading!!! You don't understand meaning and appropriate actions as a daytrader. Day traders should not only need to cut the position at risk level but MORE importantly take the profit often and even things appear right the most of times. At the end of day yes you may leave money on the table but you are up a few hundreds, a few thousands and you eliminated the risks and uncertainties of holding the position in a fully unknown and unpredictable environment. Your job as a day trader is not making the biggest money you need to make each day!! Your job is constantly locking in profit and cutting losers. At the end of the journey all it matters is the numbers on the screen. Making extra money by taking excessive risk is just not worth it!!!!!
-at the end this is fading momentum pattern. Once you recognize it it's already too late. Just because the stock is bullish doesn't mean you can't or shouldn't short it. If you want to wait for the backside, you will leave a lot of money on the table. But keep in mind, whatever you do, keep the entry point near the stop loss level so even if you are wrong you will still be alive. The interesting thing about trading is no one knows what the stock will do and it's funny that it's not important of knowing it. But the point is you need to do what you will do. You can't control the market but you can control yourself!! You may get emotional or psychotic at something but you may control your action and reduce the impact on it as much as possible. This is the case that shorting into secondary spike before 11am and anticipating no follow through momentum risking HOD. Once you have your entry in the high $4.00's you should be fine and let it do its thing.
-This is the week that 5 years from now one or two traders may talk about how much millions of dollars they made thanks to oil and energy sector rebound. As people said history will repeat itself and this is the answer. I saw the same chart pattern 2 years ago on PLUG, LAKE, and many others and today they still exist. The general pattern although takes various forms and shapes but remain unchaged!!!!
-According to Michail's Gravitational theory, this runners are destined to crash. The higher they go, the faster and more they crash. 3-days gravitational law applies here perfectly!!! The momentum is getting bigger and bigger the day after and no real pullback/consolidation yet(Daily Chart) so shorting into unexpected, ridiculous and late-stage squeeze is the best entry. Don't be afraid of sizing up!!!!! This is once in a life time kind of opportunity!!! No matter how many times I said that I always screwed up, this time no different than others.
Here are the mistakes/lessons:
-Getting biased on day 2 and even more biased on day 3. When the stock was up 100% who wouldn't be biased??!!
-Shorting on the front side of the move and refused to cover and taking loss got me exhausted before the opportunity finally knock on the door.
-In this case, afterhour and premarket are the best time of filling shorts. It started selling off right after market opened, no way for getting filled.
-Didn't expect the unexpected. 99% of people thought the 3rd day's morning spike was the finale but in reality the trends held all day long and it reclaimed to the HOD. Respect the chart!!! Don't ever exert your thinking into it, trade what you see not what you think!
-BUT I don't regret shorting into Day3 morning spike because it could be the top. What I did wrong was not cutting my position when the trend held due to bad entry. This time it touched $2 next time it could go to $2.50 or even $3.00. Always give the uttermost respect to the trend!
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