Thursday, March 31, 2016
3/31_GNCA, GBSN, LEU -$1500
Good trade, covered and moved on.
Was focusing on LEU so missing the morning para and today is reverse split date. Exercised patience to reshort it at $6.79 but ended up lost a little it refused to crashed.
ST platform was running problem on shorting this morning so couldn't short it so I was pissed. Then I guess a lot of people were happy shorting it in the morning started hitting hard wall
Took a huge hit on it which wiped out 2 week's hardwork. This chart tricked everyone who shorted today and I am a human so I am part of it. This is the pattern that didn't work in the past but workout today: tons of resistance overhead but still run over it.
No regret shorting this thing on my first 2 attempts but the problem is I only cover half of my position right after my 2nd short and let the rest ride. Whenever taking short position but it consolidates instead of pullback big, Always cover! Not partial size, do full size b/c you never know how things will turn out!!! remember LEI??!!!!! The arrow points to "danger sign" when I should have covered ALL because it already tells me that my theory is wrong!! Then the same mistake I repeated on my 3rd short attempt, again didn't cover but wait to see what will happen and that is a fatal mentality and action for daytrading!!!! It means that you don't respect your plan and stop loss, it means that you throw a dice instead of play by rules. my pain gradually elevated to the point that I eventually covered. If I was a year ago I would probably keep holding it and praying it to come down.
This is the toughest part in day trading, you can be right and profitable 2 weeks, 6 months or even 5 years but if you let one play wipe out the money you made throughout the entire period then what's the meaning of it????!!!!!! come on you have to sit down and think about it!!!
the market is dynamic place, what worked last week may work the opposite way today!!!! therefore the ONLY way to survive is being disciplined and stick to the plan no matter what!!!!!
The essence of daytrading is not maximizing gain, not sitting on open position, not giving it time or whatever, the ONLY right way to daytrade is hit-and-run. Sitting on cash is the safest and waiting for opportunities! Reduce risk exposure to the max!!!!!
Wednesday, March 30, 2016
3/30_DRWI, LEU, XTNT_Emotional trade plus revenged trade!
-the first short was due to FOMO, threw patience and discipline completely out of the window and "ideal entry" and time frame out of my mind. I knew that I should have gave it time to develop the setup before size in but didn't do so. The main reason I sized in toooooo early was because it's closer to the midday and liquidity is severely lacking in these couple weeks so I was afraid that if i didn't get it I would miss the trade. Instead of cutting my position I reshorted it at $3.84 when I knew that there should be resistance at $3.90's level. It immediately filled my order and shot up to the 90's. and I saw orders frenetically hitting $3.94 so ended up emotionally covered at $3.94 taking $250 loss.
-Mistake No.2, when I saw it peaked out at $3.94 I immediately slam the bid at $3.85 again due to FOMO but contrarily it squeezed passed $3.94 and trying to break above $4.00 mark. At that point I was almost mentally done. I knew the mistakes I made and the situation I put myself in. Due to emotional instability and lack of patience I put myself in a nasty spot especially when it was consolidating and holding above VWAP I was constantly asking myself, "should I take the loss and cover." I asked it 20 times in my head but couldn't pull the trigger because I didn't want to turn a profitable day into a losing day. I guess the GOD is on my side at that point I saw the volume was fading, $3.94 $3.97 clearly stuffed in lots of orders and I saw MR tweeted the meaning and fundamentals of it which added conviction to my position. So LUCKILY it worked out. Sighing...but it's a very emotional, lack-of-discipline trade !!!! It should never ever happen again regardless whether win or lose at the end!!!!!
It's sooo easy to let emotions get in the way!!!!!! Stand up and guard against it!!!!!!!!!!
-due to FOMO I entered the position at $3.65 because I didn't want to miss the breakout.
Took loss at the end because didn't get out fast enough. Should have got out immediately when saw
emotional uptick stuffing action!!
do I regret not longed LEU after midday today? No because I was trading based on what I see and odds. Glad to see MR shorted it and I was thinking the same thing but didn't do it because it was the frontside and lots and lots of fake selloff signals so I told myself the ONLY time to get short is true parabolic action. I believe lots of people got smoked today playing $4.00 resistance. Again I was still too stubborn, when a stock holds the trend and kept making new high and at the same time there were lots of sellers pushing it down you should know that whoever shorted it were underwater. The main reason I didn't get long was because buying this thing is really like casino trade. Had I remained disciplined I would sell as soon as I saw the selloff activities. It's also difficult to buy it because frankly I don't know the appropriate time to buy it. If buy it too early you will end up selling into weakness and if buy it into the washout it may just kept washing... so very tough to trade it long and short today. But maybe the best time to buy it is into the late day washout and holds above multi-day resistance round No. $4.
Good trade, exercised patience for the entry and nailed it.
Today is very similar to what happened yesterday, nailed the morning trade but screwed up the mid-day one!!!!! PLEASE!!!!
Tuesday, March 29, 2016
3/29_KERX, CDRB_BIG Lesson
I used to make mistake and lost money but now I shifted to another way of making mistake which is doing well at the beginning but my overstay and adding short into the weakness got wiped out the money that could be made had I just locked in the profit.
The reason I added to my position was because I wanted to $5 breakdown and I planned to cover in the high $4.90's. Again I traded it on my expectation rather than what chart was telling me. It made two attempts but couldn't breakdown so the same mistake as before the right thing would be "cover" not "reshort". I ended up squeezed and covered into panic pullback. Terrible trade. In this market, you really have to wait for the opportunities!!! As a short seller, you take advantage of emotional covers, let those people freak out so you could short into their covering!!! You refuse to be one of them which laid foundation to pro short sellers' success.
mistake1) overstay, 2) short into weakness, 3)didn't respect the signs of danger, I threw away what michael shakin said" entry entry entry".
Didn't trade it but this is the pattern we have in this market. The stock doesn't have to gap up and para then enter short, it could weak open and momentum dry up and fading, therefore it's important to enter partial position at premarket. lx21 shorted it. yesterday's EOD squeeze presented a perfect opportunity for shorting!!!!!
Thursday, March 24, 2016
3/24_GSI, VCEL
Could have been a great trade with both technical(pops) and fundamental(red flags) guides my way but due to small account size and nothing that I know about fundamentals I missed the trade. Was naively believing that the cash from selling equity 50m equals $3 up /share. Didn't look into the real side of it. When a company's Current Liability is larger than Total Asset You know it's indebted. How could it run the business in the future????? Just common sense. Thanks to Epica Capital, as a trader you need to know both the fundamentals and technicals or you can't do the trade!
Choppy stock but I followed the rule and did the right thing. good trades.
Wednesday, March 23, 2016
3/23_CPXX, CERU, LL, LEU, KTOV
It made offering at $9.50 but it breakout whole week's consolidation range and kept going and trapped shorts in it so I bought it. Due to weakness I sold.
CERU taught me how important knowing the fundamental is to trading. The news announced today was an old one released in November. So that adds conviction to shorting it. ModernRock sized in premarket and caught the top. I was always second guessing what it could do so ended up not only missing the opening para but also VWAP rejection. Again was being fearless and afraid to take the trade. Next time do the homework, have conviction and just pull the trigger! Always have an escape plan.
Perhaps the easiest trade of all today because I focused too much on CERU at the open and missed it.
As long as the price doesn't cross above yesterday's high it's bearish, period. Be comfirtable holding the short if shorted yesterday at the open or even adding position in premarket today. Pay attention to the range. If it gapped up and passed way above yesterday's HIGH then COVER. otherwise short into pops!!!
It must have caught lots of shorts off guard today. form 4 released saying an insider bought 365k shares which is not huge but still caused volatility to it. Therefore When having open position always always always keep eyes on it and cover into the serenity and looks for another opportunity. Over-stay is NEVER a good idea!!!
Tuesday, March 22, 2016
3/22_LEU, LL, ONCS, another expensive lesson
Killer setup!!! tons of bag holders therefore shorting it is a must!!!What held me back was my concern that it could break above $4.00 due to over-crowdness. I was trading super conservative these days and afraid to short into parabolic in the morning. have a plan and take it anways! In the morning parabolics, as soon as selling pressure is spotted(long upper wick and red prints on t&s), sized in tiny! The key is to keep position small and take the trade anyways. Know where to add and where to exit! Unfortunately I missed it and only shorted into bounce and made tiny.
ST DAS fucked me up and I couldn't put order in at $3.08 therefore I missed the trade.
Choppy but well-played. The first short was failure but due to market weakness I sized in anyways but it grinded against me so I covered.
I was confident about my 2nd short because it was piercing through resistance setup so I shorted $13.91 risking $13.90(HOD) over/under. Zero regret of taking the trade but it just didn't workout and proud to cut my position when it snapped back towards HOD. Good and disciplined trade
Monday, March 21, 2016
3/21_KTOV, CPXX
Was definitely influenced by a lot of missing opportunities recently so I shorted it a little too early. But the right thing would be adding to the position at $5 para.
-Then flipped long because the trend was held and it experienced a few "pressure test". Time stop loss got triggered so got out. good trade.
Tough one and again I shorted way too early. This is the trade can really mess up a good morning. It was hanging above VWAP and started running so in contrary to morning emotion it could run a little longer and further. So do NOT short too early, let it run, let it speed up and HOD tested and retested before sizing in! Important lesson learned!
Friday, March 18, 2016
3/18_VTAE, NWY, LPI, LXU, AERI
Good trade, Caught near the top and the bottom. never overstay b/c trend holds
Touching this one is a big mistake, no volume, casino trade.
The market is different every day. Expected more momentum but there was just not much of it. When the stock has nasty long term daily chart, take the short in the morning! Just make sure keep stop loss level tight and short above VWAP
Sadly it was the same mistake I made many times in the past. Knowing that when a stock cracked the VWAP and reclaim and hold is a big bullish sign. But just hard to convince myself to take the trade, afraid of any seller can step in and push it down. After heard Michail's presentation, I thought of it and really for mid and large cap stock, long is a casino trade but there are too many uncertainties.
Was anticipated parabolic but didn't get it and it peaked out at $13. Should have kept my eyes on it because it did para at $12.70's level. whenever you see the sign of selloff, doesn't necessarily mean to take the position but got keep close attention to it and ready to strike! using parabolic or whole day mark for the entry.
Market is showing different face each day and it's important to adapt!!!! I am a very risk-averse trader right now and got lots of patience. On volatile market I do well but in this slow market I often miss the trades. Always be aware of my weakness.
Thursday, March 17, 2016
3/17_VTAE, SM_the KEY to success is trading small!! Don't realize it until 2 years later.
-didn't take the trade into morning push because I was waiting it to get to $8.50 which is premarket high so I could have a better entry. Unfortunately it didn't get there due to tons of sellers in the high $7's and low $8.00. Was playing way too safe and missed the trade. The lesson here is taking the trade anyways but just keep position small in case to add.
the 2nd mistake I made was on my 2nd short and same exact mistake I made yesterday on ORPN-right after I covered it tanked. But the biggest mistake was missing the morning trade b/c if I had good entry I would give it more time to let it work.
-tried shorting into late day bounce and anticipated the washout. Tried there times but didn't have it and it got me exhausted so I covered and then it tanked. Patience is the key in shorting late day fade b/c it's damn hard to time it perfectly and impossible to size in big near the top. The key was to keep position small and ready for adding and at the same time have stop loss price in the mind.
SM was the trade that I am not proud of because I threw the discipline out of window once again. I shorted it because it looks extended on daily chart so have 0 regret for my trade. As soon as it made new candle high that was the sign to get out!!! No hesitation !!!
Wednesday, March 16, 2016
3/16_ORPN, CPXX, EPE, NUGT_up but traded terribly
Usually in the past I would screw up on this either on long or short side. this is the setup exactly like LEI and ZFGN on the first day running earlier. When I found it it was already up 60% on thin volume and hanging just above the VWAP. From my experience a lot of newbie short sellers would start pouring in and got squeezed hardcore like I did on LEI 3 months ago. This time I bought it and kept my position small and close eyes on it. $4.65 over/under as my stop loss level. Sold way too early.
On the short side saw huge and constant bidders refreshing at $7.50 level so was very confused at that time. The reason I initiated my entry at $7.40 was b/c the stock had fast and big pullback when it hit $7.00 which tells me that sellers started coming in. So I thought this would very much do a piercing through resistance fake out breakout which freak everyone out and started pulling below it. Gladly I was right on that. Very similar kind of runup with SZYM yesterday but this one is much more volatile so the KEY is having patience and waiting for the signs before sizing in! Covered too early b/c again huge bidders sulking up the orders got me confused and afraid the momentum would reverse. Could have done much better b/c I had very good entry point so could let it workout.
the 2nd chart by Dan makes good point. Say the stock was hanging around above $6.00 You gotta wait for it pop to $6.50 to enter the position and if it was trading at $5.50, you wait for $6.00. Half and whole dollar mark does have psychological impact to people's decision making and the impact gets exaggerated in the morning. That $6.50 to $7.20 stuffing action freaked me out. Therefore like Michail Shakin said, the KEY is the "ENTRY"! Rather miss than being early!!!
Knowing the fact that EPE got lots of bagholders and it seemed pretty toppy at $6.80 and had I had shares to short I would short at $6.60, 6.70 or so. Had I shorted it, I don't know if I would get out. Looking back it's a bad short b/c No.1 it was midday slow running instead of parabolic and No.2 it was hanging not far above VWAP.
Experience tells me ONLY short midday para. or waiting for the Peak gets tested and retested before size in with set risk. That's the toughest part of trading, Knowing what to do but if i have position my action may not comply.
CPXX is a tough one and I couldn't trade it due to margin requirement but even if I could I would probably stay away from it. When the stock hit big percentage gain and big volume the case gets too complicated. Rather miss than make money b/c it's just not worth it.
Like I said yesterday, never touch large cap, ETF and ETN. They are casino games!
Lesson:
Even though I made money today but I was deeply concerned because if things went wrong what would I do??!!!!! You never know what you would do when you were in the position!!!! As far as I know the only way to battle it is keeping position small and cut the position quickly the moment you see it wrong. Do it thoughtlessly. Think of every trade will go against you so you already mentally prepared for the worst.
Tuesday, March 15, 2016
3/15_SZYM, VRX_Big Crucial Lesson
Trying to catch falling knife of a large cap = suicide ! simple as that. Focus on your niche!!
Monday, March 14, 2016
3/14_ZYNE_green day but toooo biased
made two trades and covered for profits. Never overstay!
Came home from lunch and could have a chance to buy it at $14.00ish but hesitated and missed the ridiculous runup. Just being toooo short biased. Remember I told myself, "trade what you see, not what you think"!! as long as it has good reward with set risk, take it!!My hesitation, fear kept me from pulling the trigger.
Came home from lunch and could have a chance to buy it at $14.00ish but hesitated and missed the ridiculous runup. Just being toooo short biased. Remember I told myself, "trade what you see, not what you think"!! as long as it has good reward with set risk, take it!!My hesitation, fear kept me from pulling the trigger.
Friday, March 11, 2016
3/11/2016_VCEL_it's all about "ENTRY"
--Choppiness to be continued as morning push past $5 and momentum stopped from there. This thing is hard to trade b/c lvl2 and t&s always misleads you and messed with you. When you see big ask on lvl2 doesn't mean it will hold! It happened yesterday on $4.05 level. The only way to trade this liquid and choppy thing is using above-big and valid ask price level as entry point or just pass it. Say for example you see big seller today on $4.60 after morning rush, in a perfect world traders would put orders in $4.59, $4.58 risking $4.60 over/under. But remember one thing, this one got lots of absurd and irrational players and things involved, it could be manipulators, HFT, Algorithmic traders ETC. This thing was trading 30 millions shares yesterday and on top of percentage gains board, it got the whole world's attention therefore you know trading it was taking to a whole another level. There will be lots of surprises and mirage in it. BUT the only way to protect you is your entry!!!! Focus on entry and everything else will be easy. Put your entry a little above the valid resistance!!! so even if it goes against you, you can still walk away it without incurring much of damage. Had I traded it I would most like shorted it at $4.60 and got emotional when it went to $4.80 and if I cut my position I would eat my loss but if I let it keep grinding my discipline is off and I could make money at the end but this trade is a bad trade and this holding and hoping kind of mentality and habit will come after you again one day, sooner or later. So expect the surprise!!! Don't buy into what it says on the lvl2. Remember those are mirage. It's either your entry/trade or NO trade. It's so much better missing it than being early like Michail said. VWAP doesn't work on this one but it's still a good guide and can be looked at from others' perspectives. Anticipate people would put sell orders near the VWAP. Anticipate the VWAP would cross above it and created excitement which you can take advantage. Have a thesis/plan and execute. it. Remember it has to be your trade or no trade! It needs to hit certain irrational/unexpected level for me to initiate short!
-Cody played this one very well I have to say. But one thing I would never do is long it due to tons of resistance overhead. The best entry point is above the VWAP and big volume surge propelled spike! it turns out anywhere near high $4.00s is a good entry. The good about his trade was he reshorted at $4.60's when VWAP stopped to hold. Well played!!!
-Cody played this one very well I have to say. But one thing I would never do is long it due to tons of resistance overhead. The best entry point is above the VWAP and big volume surge propelled spike! it turns out anywhere near high $4.00s is a good entry. The good about his trade was he reshorted at $4.60's when VWAP stopped to hold. Well played!!!
Thursday, March 10, 2016
3/10_VCEL_Power of the Observation, LINE, LNCO
-things become crystal clear when not trading it. I cam remain 100% objective and judging the direction of the movement, analyzing the ideal entry and exit point.
-Had I had the ability to trade it I would probably fuck up again due to my bad entries and stubborness. Thing thing was trending very well through the pre-market session and no pullback yet so shorting parabolic at the open makes sense but the question is at which price lvl should I put my order in. Definitely not trying to pick the top so my only shot is focusing on secondary spike which I saw big sellers at $4.00 and $4.05 previously so very likely I will put my order in at $4.04 for easy filling BUT the recent market has been on fire and there are lots of chasers out there!!!! with knowing that my try point should be 10-30 cents above the reasonable entry point-$4.05. But again shorting parabolic has tremendous risk involved because you don't know how high it could go, this time it went to $4.30 next time it could went to $5.00 or even $5.50, $6.00. I guess the most appropriate way to play it was keeping my initial size small -500shares at $4.04 and immidiatly putting 1000 shares at $4.49 so end up having 1500 shares at $4.34. In hindsight it is always seems very easy. Another way of doing it like Nate said using half and whole number as adding mark say shorting 500 shares at $4.04 and adding 1000 shares at $4.49 and 2000 shares at $4.98 and 4000 shares at $5.48 and so on and forth. The real problem of doing it was if it went moonshot you are going to end up in a pretty nasty situation. This strategy reminds me of once OHGI went from $1ish to $3 and stayed there for couple hrs. Therefore it's important to check the float count and no. of short interest. Any player with float less than 10 million shares is not worth doing such. Statistically speaking 95% of times this strategy works. But you can't be rigid and practice it scientifically, you should always look at the chart and make decision based on the actual scenario. If massive overhead sellers exit, lower the adding point! Generally speaking shorting into speedup action plays out profitable most of the time. As Michail Shakin said, "the most important piece of the puzzle that most people overlook is the "ENTRY". It dictates your risk, exit and psychology and win ratio!!!! It has to hit the level you want usually a little absurd than most people perceive it in order to initiate the position. It's either your entry/trade or no trade!!!
-VWAP in this case insert short bias to all the traders shorted it. People with look at it and say well it's far below the morning high and hanging around below the VWAP with fading volume and this turd were up nearly 100% I will just hold my short.
-I didn't trade today because I blew up my account yesterday so from my perspective this thing has 50/50 to go. Remember one thing!!! the uptrend still holds!!!!!! As long as the uptrend is held, it's bullish! simple as that. Time stop loss is much more important in this case because given 20 min this thing was holding up!!!I mentioned earlier Had I traded it I would hold it and got squeezed and got burned. Starting today, I am going to insert 15 min rule especially in the morning session!!!!! In 15 min period of time if it doesn't do what I want, I get the fuck out!!! No question is asked!
-Patience is your worst enemy once you are in the position. It got me into troubles countless of times in the past. Because of patience I turned winners into losers, good days into bad days. Remember that you are daytrading!!! You don't understand meaning and appropriate actions as a daytrader. Day traders should not only need to cut the position at risk level but MORE importantly take the profit often and even things appear right the most of times. At the end of day yes you may leave money on the table but you are up a few hundreds, a few thousands and you eliminated the risks and uncertainties of holding the position in a fully unknown and unpredictable environment. Your job as a day trader is not making the biggest money you need to make each day!! Your job is constantly locking in profit and cutting losers. At the end of the journey all it matters is the numbers on the screen. Making extra money by taking excessive risk is just not worth it!!!!!
-at the end this is fading momentum pattern. Once you recognize it it's already too late. Just because the stock is bullish doesn't mean you can't or shouldn't short it. If you want to wait for the backside, you will leave a lot of money on the table. But keep in mind, whatever you do, keep the entry point near the stop loss level so even if you are wrong you will still be alive. The interesting thing about trading is no one knows what the stock will do and it's funny that it's not important of knowing it. But the point is you need to do what you will do. You can't control the market but you can control yourself!! You may get emotional or psychotic at something but you may control your action and reduce the impact on it as much as possible. This is the case that shorting into secondary spike before 11am and anticipating no follow through momentum risking HOD. Once you have your entry in the high $4.00's you should be fine and let it do its thing.
-This is the week that 5 years from now one or two traders may talk about how much millions of dollars they made thanks to oil and energy sector rebound. As people said history will repeat itself and this is the answer. I saw the same chart pattern 2 years ago on PLUG, LAKE, and many others and today they still exist. The general pattern although takes various forms and shapes but remain unchaged!!!!
-According to Michail's Gravitational theory, this runners are destined to crash. The higher they go, the faster and more they crash. 3-days gravitational law applies here perfectly!!! The momentum is getting bigger and bigger the day after and no real pullback/consolidation yet(Daily Chart) so shorting into unexpected, ridiculous and late-stage squeeze is the best entry. Don't be afraid of sizing up!!!!! This is once in a life time kind of opportunity!!! No matter how many times I said that I always screwed up, this time no different than others.
Here are the mistakes/lessons:
-Getting biased on day 2 and even more biased on day 3. When the stock was up 100% who wouldn't be biased??!!
-Shorting on the front side of the move and refused to cover and taking loss got me exhausted before the opportunity finally knock on the door.
-In this case, afterhour and premarket are the best time of filling shorts. It started selling off right after market opened, no way for getting filled.
-Didn't expect the unexpected. 99% of people thought the 3rd day's morning spike was the finale but in reality the trends held all day long and it reclaimed to the HOD. Respect the chart!!! Don't ever exert your thinking into it, trade what you see not what you think!
-BUT I don't regret shorting into Day3 morning spike because it could be the top. What I did wrong was not cutting my position when the trend held due to bad entry. This time it touched $2 next time it could go to $2.50 or even $3.00. Always give the uttermost respect to the trend!
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