Friday, October 30, 2015
10/30_VSCP_traded it poorly!! do NOT mistaken a lucky trade as good trade!
- on the right track-low float, big vol=lots of shorts, catalyst, so took long position
-the timing was BAD, was underwater for $100 for a few moment.
-pay attention to "initiation candle" & "exhaustion candle"!!!!
-good exit ONLY if locked in some!! left a few hundreds on the table but I did the right thing
-can't wait for the confirmation to initiate short because the price would be inferior, size in when spot "exhaustion candle" and added on lower highs risking the HOD!!!!! in anticipation it would at least retrace or possibly entered the stage of backside!!! always keep "ITEK and AQXP" on the back of the mind, these two are 1 in 1000, farthest tail of distribution!!!
-remember this ticker is up on earning!! It's not a biotech up on phase whatever study/result!!! so it can't do ITEK and AQXP type of move!!!!
-EOD: ST+$792, IB+$1822, IT'S NOT ABOUT MONEY!! it never will!
-was failure on my IB account: had decent average at $4.3 with 1800 shares long and sold my 800 shares at $6.3 and adding to my position at $5.57 and got out all my position when the previous low was cracked.
-was up $3k at a few points but I exercised patience and let the momentum pan out...it was failure because in reality the volume was just NOT there!!!!! COMPARE the VOLUME with AQXP's !!!!
-see how many shares traded per 5-minute on AQXP??
-a few points are good: notice the volume was massive in the morning!!!
-the stock was trading above VWAP at all times!
-even though made money today but traded TERRIBLY!!!!!
-when the volume wasn't there and bidders were not stacking and thick, just GTFO!!!!
-LEARN from the MISTAKE!!!!!!
Thursday, October 29, 2015
10/29_EXAS, WTW
-the company missed the earning by $0.01 but the stock shot up 15%, 2 things needed to understand-1)earnings don't matter, good or bad, it caused the reaction but doesn't dictate the direction of it. 2) an assumption needed to make-it was going up due to emotion, so why not putting yourself in a spot where you can potentially make $$$???
-"Fallen Star" type of pattern-2 ways to trade- shorting parabolic with infinite risk or waiting for the confirmation to short with set risk.
-good trade indeed, knowing myself will get liquidated any time possibly so got out, the right thing will be holding short position UNTIL chart tells me to cover!!(Greg. )
O/N swing short. Oprah pump stock that the price up isn't warranted. this is fundamentally sound short but from technical standpoint, the fact that it fails to breakdown $16.04 got me out!!! never be stubborn on short, it reminds me of ITEK.
->left money on the table for both of these two plays, but i did the right thing!
Wednesday, October 28, 2015
10/28_SLCA, BSQR
- strategy I used today "shorting pop" clearly didn't apply to 53m float runner
-the overall market was shooting up today and pretty much all tickers on my radar are GREEN, never overlook the macro environment
-shorting these kind of player was fine with SET RISK.
-this strategy ONLY work with a player that is up at least 20%!! anything else than that is not worth it!! so pay attention to the extent of gap-up
-cut all short position if the stock is above VWAP after 10:30am on sustainable volume and higher lows with uptrend intact NO MATTER what!!
-tried something new yesterday ended up -$200
-remember, just because the stock is up, doesn't mean it's a short!!
-the ONLY place to short is waiting for the vol. and price start to speed up!
-again it's okay to short with SET RISK and anticipate the crack but when stock reaches stop price, GTFO!!!!! no further question is needed!
-was too busy with SLCA or I would cut my loss on BSQR earlier... touch to trade 2 tickers simultaneously at work!!! always know your environment and limitation!!
Tuesday, October 27, 2015
10/27_ORPN, CYTK
experiencing losses consistently, can't stop it!!!
-thought it is like ITEK but really it's NOT, always remain short biased on this chart unless chart tells you so
-was influenced by p&l and had chance to cut my loss but didn't want to take it when first $6.40 failed to hold and second $6.05 stuffing occurred.
-remember Greg said," when is the BEST time to think about exit??? the answer is before you enter the trade! when is the 2nd best time to think about it? right after enter a trade."
-even after so many losses but still can't learn from it. why are you so damn stubborn??? why do you always buy a stock when you long track record is nasty. why can't you short????? why can't you adapt?????
-the right way to trade is to trade disregarding EVERYTHING in the past-wins and losses, and focus on N.O.W. market is dynamic place!! adapt!!! move on & don't LOOK BACK!!!!
-para shorting but got liquidated by ST because previous loss.
-tough to trade with small account after taking loss..sighing...
-should I refund my acc. once again??
Monday, October 26, 2015
10/26_BDSI
lost $200ish on BDSI using IB account:
-Longed the stock 1500shares at $6.07 after $6.00 b/o and VWAP reclaim and holds
- I did exercise patience but on hindsight NOT ENOUGH because the downtrend stills holds.
-ignored the level 2 sellers-I noticed whenever it moved up there are tons of sellers appeared
-again my premature entry was due to the fact that afraid to miss out. but this is 50m float stock, so never ever chase it!!! wait for CLEAR momentum shift to entry!!
-this is TOTALLY different from low float biotech runner because USUALLY VWAP reclaim and resistance b/o can leads to supernova!! ADAPT please!!!!
-pretty much all the assumptions I made turned out to be WRONG
-it's okay to make assumptions, but it's NOT okay to trade without CONFIRMATION!
Friday, October 23, 2015
10/23_IMMY, VTL
-did something I never did and as result I paid my price.
-captured the falling knife and anticipating the bounce is just STUPID!!
-this is the case that stock is never too low and could keep going down more than you think!
-being a scalper and aiming for tiny profit on the bounce is flawed and wrong!!!!
-shouldn't have taken this short trade in the first place because it was slowly uptrending since the market opened
-thought the momentum has shifted but it started to slowly grind up so got out protecting myself
-remember, it is okay to short into morning emotion-driven para NOT slow uptrending para!!!!!!
Thursday, October 22, 2015
10/22_CANF, CHLN, WTW, ERII
-tons of recent resistances on daily chart and shitty news released out created opportunities
-great premarket short on lower highs and assuming downtrending continued but definitely get out before market open!!!
-should have reshorted but hard because of small account.
-all day fader should have kept me holding
-illiquid and afraid to short even though $5.69 seemed pretty toppy
-after confirmation should initiate short again in low $5.
-just very illiquid and low float(2ish m) and worried a big buyer could squeeze the hell out of me
-remember it's okay to short as long as with SET RISK!!!
-Oprah-pumped-up stock and finally the momentum shifted yesterday after morning para.
-the best time to short was yesterday.
-the plan for today was reshort into pops/strength in the morning and anticipated all day fade
-same thing again and again!(quoted from greg: pro-pumper started the move, amateur shorts got squeezed, amateur longs chased it, FINALLY pro shorts profited)
Wednesday, October 21, 2015
10/21_ERII
made my second trade on ERII and that was it!
LESSONS:
-threw patience away and entered position TOO EARLY!! afraid of missing out hurts!
-just because the stock is weak doesn't mean I must play the long side!!! being blindly contrarian is fatal!!!!
-when it's red and below VWAP, do NOT anticipate squeeze!!!!!! all shorts are happy sitting with green p&l and WON'T panic!!!! (ITEK, SGYP, CANF, lots of former squeezer never squeeze from red zone)
-didn't wait for the CONFIRMATION to size in
-made assumption, was wrong and overstayed
-compared it with CANF(6m float), this is 50m float stock!!!!! should be traded differently!
-read MOMO trader yesterday and should looking for entry premarket and exit during 9:27-9:30am if short DIDN'T workout meaning "RED"
-the ONLY good things I did was 3 things:
1) got out yesterday short at $6.47 when higher lows spotted
2)used half of intended position size
3)cut loss when $6.67 broke down
Tuesday, October 20, 2015
10/20_CRBP, ERII
day tons of lessons, 1 missing opportunity, 1 solid short
CRBP is our old and familiar friend because I was there on the big and crazy day in August. this is the setup that yields big profit with fairly high odd but the requirement is having a large account and the key to profit is SIZE IN earlier. so premarket is boring after the initial spike with high-$2.68. so what is the plan??!!!!!! My thesis is size in into morning strength using $2.68 as a guide, remember ONLY size into the strength NOT weakness. lots of people will use half/whole dollar mark for guides and knowing that I should put $2.49 limit sell order in the place and reshort at $2.53, $2.61, etc....even after $2.68 because we need wiggle rooms! unfortunately I missed it. lessons: I DID NOT HAVE LIMIT SELL ORDER IN PLACE!!!!
this is the ticker I nailed with 1200 shares average $7.25 short. it already dropped more than a dollar. but looking at the chart, it's NOT easy to trade as it seems to be.
- I knew from the get go that I wanted to place short but the questions is when and where
-strong premarket with 2 parabolics occurs and one more after the market opened, everyone was excited about 10-year contract.
-thesis: NEVER short into first parabolic b/c you never know how high it will go, so my short needs to have set risk and infinite reward.
-it started making new lows after initial spike so i sized in half. I made a mistake of adding to my full-size into the weakness so my average was $7.25 and it shows later that I was squeezed all the way to $7.90. Here comes my internal conflict: do I cover and take loss(shake-out) or waited to see the next pullback.
-I told myself if the never pullback puts a higher low I would get out NO MATTER what!!!
-Luckily it worked out and importantly ONE THING I noticed: the stock was very THICK on the squeeze up and very THIN on the way down which leads me to think there are TONS of sellers+shorts there waiting to get filled and on the way down it literally just crashed in blinks of eyes.
-the trendline methodology works PERFECTLY in this case!!!!!!!!!!!!!! level 2 plus T&S works the best by watching them together.
-one mistake I used to make was shorting right away(lack of patience). the key for being a great short seller is first CONVICTION, second PATIENCE, third size in TIMELY!!!
Monday, October 19, 2015
10/19_WTW
mistakes & lessons:
-the idea was right and waited till the squeeze to initiate the shorts
- making emotional shorts into the lower highs/weakness but the right thing should have been shorting into the strength! ( same mistake made many times)
-crowded ticker with 70million volumes is better avoided than tradable.
Thursday, October 15, 2015
10/15_$TTHI
what the fuck was I doing???? took day off yesterday and came back today still feeling sick and headache. Made emotional and just stupid decision by buying it. being part of the bull crowd which got me into big trouble. A typical fallen star chart. threw patience away, threw rationality away, desperate of making money, homerun mentality, etc..i knew it was not right to buy it but somehow I still did it.. can't help it. I paid my price-$526. 2 lessons learned today: 1) NEVER trade when you are not feeling well. 2) NEVER buy a stock that is spiking, DON'T be a chaser!! it's not worth it!!!!you may be up a little on your p&l but all it has to take is the next pullback to put you under water!!
I hate fucking up good setup!! why don't you take advantage of morning emotions??? this is a classic chart for shorts!!!! use the former resistance as a guide!!! the reason 90% of people lose money because they are chaser. they buy what is moving up and short what is moving down!!! in order to beat the market, you gotta be a CONTRARIAN!!!! when people panic buying, it's a short!!!! this setup happened again and again and I kept making same mistakes again and again. People talk about consistency on making money on daily basis, I also have consistency losing money on daily basis. please CHANGE!!!!!
Tuesday, October 13, 2015
10/13_$CJJD
Traded it using IB. This is the case where you shouldn't have bias. I was long biasd because it was former runner, low float, positive earnings, unusual volume. from the short perspective, the stock has nasty chart, trash company, china's economic downturn, big resistance at $2.20's. the fact it fail to break above $2.20 should take me out!! I thought the chart is like biotech when a stock touches VWAP, short can really go panic by covering. this is perhaps the right thing to do: if you looking to trade ORB, ALWAYS wait for the VWAP touch and pull back before deciding to trade. from short perspective, it's a good short at VWAP. lost $370 on it. Again my loss was caused by my impulsive and emotional trade! You should never ever emotionally buy into the bounce and short into weakness!!!!you gotta WAIT!!!!! not appropriate way to trade!!!! I've taken full responsibilities for it.
Monday, October 12, 2015
10/12_$CANF, $PACB
Will start posting daily P&L starting today with purpose of holding myself accountable for my actions. Full transparency hopefully can help me to learn the mistakes, lessons and my thinking during the trades.
choppy CANF. On hindsight it was a short. same pattern like VGGL. After so many squeezes in the past and I knew for the fact there are tons of bagholders. so I was short-biased from the get go. There are people out there saying "no bias" which is bullshit. You gotta have bias and trade on your conviction and confirmation. I did right thing shorting it but the wrong thing was timing!!! I shorted it in panic and got squeezed. REMEMBER, when looking to short, never short into morning weakness and slowdown of price actions, short into the bounce!!!! Mistake No.2, I was being too flexible and even bought into the VWAP reclaim and aiming for opening range breakout. ORB doesn't work on the daily chart of CANF!!!! there are far too many bagholders!!!! Patience & Timing is the key to profit!!
this one I completely fucked up!! I admit that I am not good at trading large cap(40m float). held it over the weekend and aimed for premarket/openning fell but didn't happen. So I covered and it tanked. could have made $700 on it. In this case my risk aversion and cautiousness got me out when I should have gave it a little bit more time. Traded it well but took loss.
Wednesday, October 7, 2015
10/7_$RJET, $PACB
for charting, I am using in combination of Scottrade and DAS. It allows me to make better decision than using only one of them alone. traded RJET today using IB and ended up selling for $70 profit. good trade!! shorted it due to over-extention and it seems the momentum has changed and longs will start selling for profit. Was wrong and sold it when seeing higher lows, gearing up and narrower range and knew the squeeze is due!! good cover!
PACB will be top watch tomorrow. it's like ACI drawing lots of shorts. everyone tried to pick the top got burned. won't think to short unless seeing clear signs of momentum shift
PACB will be top watch tomorrow. it's like ACI drawing lots of shorts. everyone tried to pick the top got burned. won't think to short unless seeing clear signs of momentum shift
Tuesday, October 6, 2015
10/6_$CTRV, $WGBS
CTRV made ridiculous movement yesterday we got $0.50 squeeze into the market close and that should flush out lots of shorts. Today I came to the market trading the CTRV with thesis: I definitely not going to long the stock, the stock was turd, it had big ass squeeze in the morning and downtrended all day and to me it is already in the stage of backside. However, it can still do FORD, ITEK type of movement. I wouldn't long in the early morning, the ONLY time that I would long is if it consolidate the whole day and it's gearing up and holding trend the whole day, then I will long aimed for EOD squeeze. From short perspective, I know that I will definitely not short in the premarket, you never know what is going to happen when the bell rings. Also if the stock was showing weakness out of the gate, be cautious!!! I know this is crowded short, so there is big chance it could squeeze and sure it did!! wait for the squeeze to size in and anticipate the LOD cracking. Danger signal: time stop loss should trigger if it refused to went down or start consolidating or even it went down but quickly ramp back up, get out!!!! when I have good execution, the benefit is even if i am wrong, I could still get away with profit or breakeven..Choppy ticker as the movement made later the day. I wouldn't be surprised to see it squeezed up tomorrow morning.
WGBS was fairly an easy 10% profit trade had I exercised patience. Morning exuberance spike followed by fading. the KEY is to wait for exhaustion/confirmation before started sizing in. $1.80 was a good entry price and covered in the low $1.60's. PATIENCE is the key to succeed!!!!
WGBS was fairly an easy 10% profit trade had I exercised patience. Morning exuberance spike followed by fading. the KEY is to wait for exhaustion/confirmation before started sizing in. $1.80 was a good entry price and covered in the low $1.60's. PATIENCE is the key to succeed!!!!
Monday, October 5, 2015
10/5_$CTRV
Today was a bad day for me, unable to trade because I blew up my Suretrader's account and surpassed 3 trades on IB. Therefore I couldn't do anything today but watching how such great opportunity was slipping off from my fingers. It's strange to me that whenever I papertrade, I do better. Had I had buying power, I wouldn't do well probably. Emotions and biases play huge roles on trading. Every single time after what it has done, it always seems so easy to bank from it. Thanks to hindsight bias. the premarket downtrending must trapped lots of shorts which contributed the monstrous spike. this is the ticker you can hit homerun or blowup year's earning. So what's the lesson?? have big picture and avoid premarket and out-of-gate trade-long or short!!! it's 50/50 what stock would do when the bell rings!!!! the correct way to trade is making assumption and waiting for the confirmation before size in. From long perspective, if the stock can go across VWAP and holds higher low, there is greater chance it can do "openning range breakout". Just have to be careful that these days a lot of stock gives you fake ORB signal, it went above VWAP on strong volume and dipped down, that was fake signal. On short perspective, Wait for the stock making new low and give it a few minutes and make sure it can't hold and there exist solid selling pressure to initiate short. I wouldn't short this stock until spotting exhaustion candle-big and long red candle on 5-minute chart. remember, top-picking is fatal and must be avoided!!!! long or short, always wait for confirmation before size in, don't be a fucking scalpter!!
Sunday, October 4, 2015
Intro
My name is Derek and I am a Chinese American and had been living in New York since September 2003. I was very fortunate that my parents provided me all the necessity since the day I was born and I didn't have to worry about the food on the table, the place to live and the future to come. I was not a good student in high school because I spent a lot of time playing PC games and just not working hard enough for SAT and GPA. I ended up going to Baruch(CUNY) and in pursuit of finance degree. I am a mediocre person and perhaps below average person in terms of academic and career performance. I seem have a lot of troubles blend into the college circle and suck at networking. 4 years passed by in a blink of eyes and most people had successfully landed jobs but I was struggling to find a job. I had a few opportunities of interviews but I screwed up badly and ended up working as salesperson after graduation. In a few months I was fired because I and several other people seem couldn't contribute much to the company. I was depressed since then and spent every single day home. My mom is the nicest person in the world because she didn't scold at me but still looked after at me. One day I got into a fight with my mom and the next day I started looking for a job, any job!!! Then I ended up with Reiko Wireless, a cellphone accessories wholesaler and distributor doing sales job. I met many good people that I still stay in touch with but I know that I can't do this job for rest of my life. During Chinese New Year 2014 I went to China and was inspired by my aunt talking about making whole year's salary in one day from the stock market. She had been my role model ever since I was a child and I always looked at her as someone I wanted to become. I was fascinated of her story and decided to open a brokerage account when I got back to the US. So I opened and funded my first brokerage account-Scottrade but subsequently lost all my capital there-$12500. I still remember my first trade-$ATHM. I was up $2000 in 2 days and excited about it but in third day my P&L went from $2000 to $1500 to $500 and I had to sell it for profit which was less than what I could sell it the day before. My first 6 months as a trader was disaster because I emotionally bought and sold short stocks. Then I came across Tim Sykes and his videos and how his trading strategies helped his subscribers making tens of thousands of dollars. I opened an account at Suretrader to get over Pattern Day Trader rule but I was in a endless cycle of funding. I had consistent and unstoppable losses since the day I opened Suretrader. I've even kept the whole stack of credit card authorization forms in my drawer. I made all kinds of beginners' mistakes-impulsive and reckless trading, emotional trading, going into a trade without plan, refuse to cut losses, what happened was I was very often taken out of the game right out of the gate. I didn't understand the stock charts, patterns and just made decisions purely based on what I felt the stock would do. This was the period that I never want to go back to because I was depressed, anxious, angry, frustrated and any negative emotions you could think of. In the February 2015 I went to China again and came back and I actually started to trade better. I used to fund my account on daily basis but this time I could keep my account alive for more than a couple days. I was inspired by Tim Grittani so I started recording my daily trading log on excel spreadsheet and kept track of all my daily trades on it including position size, percentage gain/loss, notes. I started to become a better trader. I survived !!!! then one day I made $17000 on the ticker symbol $ITEK. I was super happy about it but guess what I lost nearly half of it in the following trading sessions. My account was going through roller-coaster ride since ITEK's profit. One day I lost $6000 on EBIO and the next day I made $7000 on CERE. I was trading huge after ITEK's profit, $20000-$30000 position size as opposed to the size I used to trade-3k, 5k, 8k. Then finally I lost all my capital on Suretrader but the only silver lining was I still had 10k profit on my IB account. the reason I did well on my IB was it was subject to PDT, the funding came from the borrowing from my best friend, and most importantly I always exercised patience before entering the trade. My strike after confirmation definitely paid off. I've been writing diary on my word document in my computer and starting today, I will start posting charts, analysis, my wins&losses and lessons on this blog. I was inspired by Jordan from "Investors Underground" on starting this blog and as what Jordan said, "it will help with my accountability and consistency as a trader." I hope this blog has values far beyond than I think and I can become a better trader. At the end, I want to THANK YOU for reading my blog!!! My English writing is bad, I hope what I wrote makes sense to you.
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