11/20_PACB, KBIO, Lessons

-did 2 trades simultaneously today and fucked up both. I can't watch 2 opening positions at same time!

-I didn't regret my PACB short because it's overextended on daily chart. Again, the problem is I refused to stop out when it couldn't go red and stayed below big significant psychological number-$10. My assumption was there are supposed to be lots of sellers at $10 but again I was wrong. Another undisciplined trade.

-I thought I was lucky that I didn't short KBIO. Frankly after I saw Greg's post on KBIO's short, I was considering to take short position as well but there was no shares to borrow both at my brokers ST and IB and I got really busy yesterday with AVXL but today especially after 2 super squeezes I was looking for shares to short at IB. I was looking to pay any price to get myself involved so I put limit order at $14.02 because I wanted to get shares not others. IB's shorable shares is first come, first serve basis so I have to put in order early and low to get myself filled and that's the beginning of my debacle. 

-I held my 400 shares at avg $14 through the ridiculous squeeze and at peak my unrealized loss was $3000 but I didn't get shaken out to cover. 

-it's got 2 volatility halts and then finally exhaustion red candle came and I was happy about it and said "finally"! 

-I added another 100 shares at avg $18 and ended up holding 500 shares at avg $15.20 through the weekend. This is trading: a small, tiny and careless mistake can turn into a huge and ridiculous agony. I already made the mistake, feeling bad about it isn't gonna change it, I will have to fix it. 

-I saw a big trader on Twitter posting "T+3" squeeze got me thinking, "if today's squeeze was caused by T+3, i should be fine. I did the math, KBIO started running 4 days ago, prop firms which lent shares on 11/16 demanded 3 days to cover up the position which is today 11/20. this is supposedly the last squeeze we've got and all the shorts replaced should hold their positions tight from now. 

-based on my experience on AQXP, CANF, when the exhaustion and momentum shift red candle came, it is the backside of the move! So I held my position over the weekend not due to hope but after my consideration-3 squeezes already, exhaustion candle, crowded longs, possibility of financing/offering could be announced soon, fundamentally flawed company. I decided to hold short into Monday morning!!! Will get to work earlier tomorrow to manage it!

Lessons/Takeaways:

1) Never Ever take eyes off your position No Matter what!!! market is dynamic and conditions're constantly changing, even in premarket & after-hour session ($KBIO)

2) the ONLY reason for shorting is anticipation of it coming down, NOT fear of shortable shares runout, NOT FOMO, NOT weakness, NOT because everyone on twitter and chatroom talking about it,etc. 

3) Cut your position at predetermined risk level NO MATTER what. No adding, no rationalizing, no thinking

4) Trade what you see, NOT what you think. 

5) Fight quick battle, close position before market close and start your next day fresh unless with sufficient unrealized P&L so worst case scenario happens next day, up/down 50%, you gotta be okay with that. 

6) Cut attachment to P&L, do the right things~
7) No bias, even if a stock spike big doesn't mean it's a short, it can keep going!!! remember that!!!! Trade the price action, Not your thought!!
8) Take pride in taking the position off when it blows through your stop loss point! Combat "freezing"!
9) "you never really know how you’ll react until you’re faced with that situation"...thoughtless and 100% robotic is not a choice but a MUST to stay in this game. 

11/18-11/19_AVXL, KBIO-Account Terminator

One of the most frustrated and exhausted days I had..it caused me headaches and pain..did right things and wrong things, please please please there is no value of this blog and whatsoever I did in the last one and half years if I still refused to cut off losing position quick.

-the day started with AVXL up nearly 20% premarket and solid trend. Due to the strength of premarket, I was thinking is it going to be like SPHS. 

-so here is my plan: short into strength in "amateur hour" and cover into the pullback if trend holds or hold it through the day if it continue fading.

-I never thought that it could be a crowded stock for couple reasons: it was at $15 a few days ago, a bad company everyone knows of and there could be a big short interest already

-however I don't regret my short. I will do the same thing again.

Here are the real problems:

-overstayed the short position and when it started to gear up, instead of cutting my position and eating the loss, I added to the LOSER which compounded the loss and reinforced my short bias. 

-I overlooked the big picture trend, was too stubborn and focusing on intra-minute candles. the lack of big picture is my 2nd mistake. 

-Made lots of emotional trades, in and out which piled up my trading cost. That's NOT the major problem, I don't mind $100, $200 cost if I can potentially make $1k,2k. The major problem is because of in and out, in and out, I became exhausted. My head was spinning, My back is suffering pain and I was feeling unease through out my whole body. For no good reason or whatsoever, I decided to stand up and fight. 

-2 things=NEVER SHORT: 1)after the market open, it made the first push then pullback.You have to pay attention to secondary push, see if it can make a new high or even close to the previous high, it doesn't have to base on the first high! 2)after the secondary push, see where it will pushback, is it going to make a lower low or higher low. If 2nd high>1st high & 2nd low>1st low=NEVER SHORT.

Does not necessarily mean to buy right away, wait for higher low, higher low and long. then after it breakout the HOD, add to long position

-The ONLY right thing I did was cutting my entire short position after HOD breakout and took a long position. 

-deadly spiral continued..I thought it was "stuffing"so I shorted it but when it started to gear up instead of cover my entire position, I did wrong thing by adding to my short, now I was having full size. 

-Again I was just being too biased and didn't follow my trade plan. I traded on what I think not on what I see. When I am in full size position, I refuse to realize the loss....that's the major problem. never in full size because I know that I will be frozen when I need to exit. 

-whenever I refused to stick to the plan,there was consequence. I held it through the big ass squeeze. I got lucky this time that it eventually went down but didn't even think about to cover. I thought finally momentum has shifted, i may hold it o/n but guess what WRONG AGAIN. instead of fizzling down, It spiked again. I reached the point that had to liquidate my position by 3:30pm  because ST only allows 2:1 margin o/n. 

-I did hold a small position planning to swing on but that was when I saw KBIO made ridiculous move and based on my experience last time when AQXP up triple digit % last time, VLTC spiked. So due to the concern that AVXL can be sympathy player to KBIO, I covered that that turned out to be the BEST cover of all day. It saved me from more than $1k loss the next morning. 

-gladly I covered the previous day in a/h. I saw AVXL made ridiculous move premarket, so here is my plan: shorting into morning strength risking premarket high, I had $6.80 avg and work out nicely

-I thought finally...it will go into dark abyss but again WRONG. the secondary spike turned my $1.2k profit into nearly b/e but I didn't get shaken out. I was planning to cover into the next pullback if it starts to base higher. 

-As what it shows, I covered into higher base afraid of EOD HOD push for half of earlier profit.

-here is P&L at the end of day. A ridiculous roller coaster ride. first of all I was down $1800 on short realized, then I made nearly $2000 long realized which net me $200 profit, and then I reshorted and ended up killed but refused to cover into the squeeze but still covered at the end due to the staying power and KBIO's craziness. At the end after commission and ECN fee, I took $300 loss which is much smaller than my earlier loss but I was extremely tired, exhausted and suffering from headache, stomachache, coldness. It was not a good experience. Traded the way I did, doesn't matter whether make some or lose some, it's just not worthy it!!! 

-KBIO is near a bankrupt company and recently it came out a press release about it will liquidate its assets and very likely to discontinue its operation. I didn't know much about the fundamental part of it, but I knew there were lots of people on Twitter taking short position including lx21, mt, etc. lx21 is an influencial trader and recently he just added KBIO on his blog-"90%trade" as part of his short holding at avg. $2.20. I can tell there are lots and lots of people are short biased. Above is the 3 day chart. After liquidation news, it was down to $0.50 but ran all the way up to $2.50 and was getting crowded. tons and tons of shorts were taken place. Then A/H.....BOOM!~~

-I was actually watching it when it was quickly shooting up to $3.00. On the hindsight yes I should have bought it but at that moment, it was ridiculously crazy!!!! I was watching it went from $2.00 to $3.00 in 3 1-minute candles!!! a 50% spike in 3 minutes!!!!! that's the momentum you need to join!!!!!! unfortunately I didn't make it as part of the plan. I told myself to be absolute contrarian!!! knowing a stock is ridiculously short biased and I know that I should have been long biased!!! but I need 3 things: volatility, volume, and PR!! always remember volume is the top indicator to watch!!!!!!! it supersedes everything!!!! a PR came out at 5pm when it was already trading in the 10's. 

-Had I prepared, I think I should have nailed it.

-A/H's movement is absolutely ridiculous. Then in premarket it did 2nd round of spike and here i believe there are lots of shorts started jumping on board and all the shorts had been covered already. at that point, I didn't touch it but I do think it was probably the beginning of the back side....

11/17_OCRX, GNC_Overtrading burns!! Ignore large cap and ONLY focus on my niche!

-a lot of lessons and frustration. burned by in-n-outs, commissions, and ECN fees. stupid

-made my old mistake buying "fallen star" but quickly recognized it and got out and flipped short

-first cover was phenomenal, recognized short-term support on lvl2 and covered half. 

-then due to the uptrends and lower highs, covered the other half. 

-then saw the stock was staffing around VWAP so shorted it but again it failed to crack and I saw big and constant bidder at $4.10 kept popping up on lvl2 so covered and flipped to long risking $4.08.

-in 3 minutes the bidders got taken down and I recognized "shit it's going to washout and quickly sold without hesitation." if there is any silver lining can be takeaway from my 20's trades today, that exit on my long position(2000shares) at $4.05 was the one!!!!!

-then I was feeling bad because I turned my $4xx green day into $2xx so I picked up the sword and decided to fight it. that was one of the biggest mistakes I ever made and surely I paid for the consequence. but my plan was $4 can be a valid resistance and it should stay below it. So I did have a plan, it wasn't a reckless and emotional trade. but the timing was bad and frankly the stock just squeezed up $0.80 from high $3's, so it's nothing ridiculous...what's the point of shorting???!!!!!

-when the confirmation comes, you got have patience! being too cynical and insecured protects me on the front side but got me shaken-out on the back side. I was fooled by volatility and bluffing bids and emotionally covered into this mother fucker's selling. what a bluffing bid!

-FUCK still got pissed because that MTFer got me. He knew that there were lots of people reading lvl2 and he tried to sell eg:30,000shares so he increased the size on the bid penny by penny and got me thinking "shit, big buyer, ended up covered in panic $4.05. he successfully got me covering into his selling at $4.05 and if without bluffing bid at $4.01, $4.02, $4.03, he wouldn't be able to sell as much as $4.05. but that's a risky approach because a big seller can still sell into his large bid and he could potentially compound his loss. But this strategy does works in a weak and nonliquid condition and when the major selloff has ended. 

-shame on me screwing up such EZ and repeating setup..

-turned a great day into good day, then turned a good day into a bad day.

-should avoid shorting such a volatile, extreme liquid, choppy and SSR large cap stock. 

-I was just too hungry for profit and got fire onto myself. 

-my initial short was good, i don't regret it nor I feel bad about it. 

-the problem was after it cracked major whole number support and reclaimed, I didn't cover. I was experiencing up and down, up and down and it really toasted my judgment and mind. Again I was being undisciplined, therefore I took the loss. I still had strong attachment to P&L and I ignored what the price is telling me. bad bad bad trade! 

11/16_EFUT, MYOS

-played it the best I could both long and short

-very weird/manipulative lvl 2 bidders' action. Huge bids were constantly refreshing and it was not fake. I couldn't tell whether it was distribution or accumulation, confused me a lot. 

-whenever the large bid was taken, another large bid appeared again. I was thinking maybe somebody knew something that a good news will be released, or someone big called MM to make market for liquidation. frankly i had no idea but followed the price action. 

-did good job on shorting emotional outbreak using $7 as my risk level. Basically I told myself, if it started to based at $7, I would cover my position.

-Took long position based on the assumption that someone accumulated a large trunk of stocks for plausible reasons but in hindsight I was wrong. 

-will keep eyes on it tmr!

-I missed the first resistance lvl short due to "fear" of being wrong, was planning to short on resistance lvl2 but didn't have a chance to get it. 

-this is the stock that you have to short into the first resistance point. don't make assumption that it could get to the next resistance. just keep the position size small and always ready to cover if it started basing/gearing/perking. 

11/13_LPCN, SYPR

-Fairly easy trade, sized in a little too early, ideal entry but far from great. risking $13.80 level

-saw from level 2 and Time and Sales that a big seller at $13.80, whenever it hit it, sellers quickly jumped a few cents before it and got filled. It tells me the resistance is valid. It's hard to describe it unless you see the action(retrospection)！！！ 

-didn't trade it but this is the play that has volatility, liquidity and decent edge. 

-small cap has relatively high degree of predictability than large cap, i see lots of people trading VRX, SPHS, VIPS. these stocks are too complicated, hedge fund involved, analysts involved, a PR or expose can easily influence the price, you are dealing with complexity, you don't know who is behind the scene so why put yourself in that situation ??!!

-this one easy, the price reacts to the contract with volvo. remember, whenever there is good news out, there are lot of retail people involved. these people are stupid, they tend to chase the stock, buy based on news. I can take advantage of the emotions involved. Since lots of retail bought it, I would definitely looking to short it. Got be contrarian!!! the best place to short would be "premature HOD breakout" remember, there are lots of people out there read the book said buy b/o, I would short into that big volume candle! On hindsight it was a fakeout breakout. then it started making lower highs, that gave me 2nd chance to short! 

-the way to play it should be: 1st of all, short into emotional reaction to the news risking HOD and cover when seeing ABCD setup. 2ndly take advantage of premature HOD b/o and excitement of b/o buyers and amateur shorts covering. 3rdly knowing that exciting buyers and shorts got flushed out by the b/o and the fact it started making lower highs, size in anticipating the washout. 

-that's it!!! you have 3 shots to do it!!!learn learn learn!!!!!this is late day fading action in Nate's DVD. 

11/12_EYEG_same mistake as ANFI

-tough way to make money this way. shorted 2600 shares @ IB with avg. $3.91 due to FOMO and overconfidence & conviction

-At peak on IB I was down $1.5k. The ridiculous thing was I knew it would probably go to $4.50(resistance on daily chart) but I still sized in way toooooooo early and risking big. 

-Rule: NEVER EVER short into morning weakness!!!!!!!!!! because risk-reward stinks. Rather miss a trade than risk squeezing!

-the "KEY" to short parabolic is to determine whether the resistance is valid or not! remember: you trade objectively, you don't trade based on anticipation!

-Even after yesterday's ANFI mistake, I still haven't learned my lesson....pathetic....

11/11_ANFI_Account-blowup Day

-I broke the rules, didn't stick to the plan thus took a massive hit!!
-bagholded through the storm and at the peak I was down nearly $3k.(thank ST for liquidation)
-undisciplined! was planning to risk $7.00(premarket high) or $7.50 level(daily chart resistance)
-Added emotionally into weakness and didn't cut my loss at risk point nor pullback
-was influenced by yesterday's missing trade-SPHS and I remember I told myself to get feet wet just in case it would go straight down that was the source of the problem. Always get out position before opens!
- Biggest mistake: In position TOO BIG & TOO EARLY
-when the premarket and day HIGH was breaking out, there is no POINT be remained short!! Stubborness kills! Had opportunity to cut my loss but I didn't do so.
- threw patience away which is No.1 priority as a short seller!
-didn't display VWAP or I would probably cut my entire position when it holds on first pullback!
-when SSR is on, it's extremely HARD to play the short side!!! you need extra patience!!!!
-subject to "position bias"!!!! ALWAYS get out and reassess!!!!!!!! experience tells me that staying flat allows me to have the best judgment with highest degree of accuracy so why "IN"?? why fight???? let them die!!!! fuck FOMO!!! these people laid concrete foundation to my success!
-Lastly remember: taking loss is part of the game!!! MUST realize it or it gets snowballed!!!!! starting tomorrow I will recite the statement: "taking loss is a must, not an option"!!!