Thursday, January 28, 2016

1/28_AMDA, NEOS

-short-biased plus holding above VWAP after 11:00am is a good buy.
-the reason I didn't touch it was because I was biased and afraid to buy the trash company. If I was before I would definitely buy it regardless. As Jesse said, "it's not good to know too much of a company because it clouds your mind! just surf the speculation wave."
-shorted it twice but it just couldn't breakdown.
-my time stop loss got triggered so got out! no question to be asked.

Wednesday, January 27, 2016

1/27_TRXC

-large float must be treated differently from low float.
-It's never a good idea to chase it, always give it time to pan out and ONLY buy dips!
-This thing has no catalyst and the ONLY thing that got me into it was it broke out HOD and started gearing up from there but hey on the upside $2.85 was absorbing all the buy orders!!!! I saw it and my anticipation was the buyers and early shorts were powerful enough to push it through. Once again I was trading based on my assumption without respect to the price action itself.
-thing thing should trapped a lot of amateur breakout buyers but as matter of fact it was a fakeout breakout and HOD stuffing short setup!!
-the ONLY good thing I did was cutting my position once it slid below $2.80.

Tuesday, January 26, 2016

1/26_SGOC

-Last week at Reiko before dedicating my blood into trading. All we need is a play like SGOC to make the day.
-Perfect morning emotional spike+reverse split+pumpish PR leads me to be short-biased.
-two spots to short on but the ideal shorting spot is when it was rejected by VWAP. Shorting it risking $5.25 over/under has good risk-vs-reward. However on the back of my mind I was always cautious if there is reclaiming action. The right thing would be shorting it with price stop $5.25 and time stop 10:45am. Meaning that if the price started to take off or if given enough time but failed to breakdown, go ahead and cover it.

3 things you want to do:
1)through research, analysis and understanding, make your plan! Visualize what it will do. 
2) price stop loss order must be in place!
3) time stop loss order is just as important as price stop order! (Michail emphasizes the importance of time factor which is often neglected by a lot of people)

Thursday, January 21, 2016

1/21_ZFGN, TROV: KEY element to survive!

-took $3000 position for gapper next day and got what I wanted-20% gap up!
-Zero regret about my entry and exit b/c I was on the Southern State PKWY and no way to get out.
-the lesson is Never marry this turd. Nail/bailout!! No question!! No overstay!!!
-Traded it terribly and made emotional decisions shorting and buying it.
-When my price and time stop loss was triggered didn't get out fast enough. Overstay is stupid and threw discipline completely out of the window.
-Interesting thing was this one got momentum in it:
1) new high after 10am
2)oscillated around VWAP
3)most importantly when the support was cracked it quickly reclaimed which led me to long. I know there were lots of sellers earlier and tons of resistance on top, the stock is bearish unless it breaks above $4.30 level. Why did I think $4.30 is important level?? Because two big volume bar happened there in the morning so I believed these shorts using $4.30 over/under as stop loss level.

-Proud of the two trades I made on IB.
-Bought 1500 shares at $4.35 in the morning but it didn't do what I expected and ended up cutting position at $4.10's. I was telling myself that Jesse said, "what you see a train coming at you 80mph, you get the fuck off the rail!!!! If the stock acts right again you can always get back on!!!! Timing in this case is crucial!!!
-The reclaiming action and $4.30's push got me longed again and I know now it's good time to long because all the early shorts can really freakout and momentum/chasers will possibly step in.
-Got out at $5.38 because the uptrending action is not as smooth as I wanted. It broke out a few times but not convincing and significantly enough.
-Another reason is I won't be able to trade premarket tomorrow so why throw a dice????

KEY POINT:
-Again I thought about this once before but couldn't do it due to nasty humanity and nature. The KEY to survive in the market is not about "Gains" but "losses". It led me to focus on another piece of the puzzle that is often overlooked by 99% of people out there- "POSITION SIZE" which has powerful subconsciousness influence on a trader's judgment and actions!!!!! By trading small, not only you can detach from P&L and better focus on the chart but also that if the trade do NOT workout, you can easily get out without negative impact to your account and mentality and have a better and accurate shot on 2nd attempt!! Remember frustration is inevitable! LOSS is inevitable!! Very often the trade JUST DON'T WORKOUT!!! Accept the fuck it and move on!!!! As long as trade small, you maintain the capacity to comeback! Today I went from $450 loss to $1300 gain is a perfect example of the meaning of trading small on the first attempt!!

Wednesday, January 20, 2016

1/20_ZFGN_Blowup-Day AGAIN, -$1100


-Same setup as LEI but still fucked up but this time I did better than the last's.
-2 things I did better this time: 1) I had stop loss level in my mind. 2)I cut my position instead of waiting for liquidation.
Mistake/Lesson:
-Letting premarket downtrend influence my decision making and I was too biased and stubborn.
-Pre-market action is invalid if the volume is relatively small! Due to increasing volume and the fact it made a new high after morning sideways action, it's NEVER a short!!!! Just by watching the volume you can tell this thing is over-crowded!!! Remember Nate's saying,"it's good to be 50cents late than being early!!!!
-when the stock is consolidating near the HOD, it's NEVER a short!!!!! remember LEI>?!
-Premarket action is insignificant b/c the volume is extremely low compared to regular hrs!!! I could make better decision if not letting premarket action influence my thinking and bias. The only thing that I am interested is parabolic shorting but it was not parabolic yet, so why short???!! You were just begging for squeeze. In fact when it makes new high and consolidating near it, it's a LONG setsup!!!
-Again deep down the root of the problem, I wasn't prepared well. I traded on assumption and didn't have a good double-way plan whatsoever: what to do when stop level got hit and whether should flip. Again in this case I had a plan BUT the problem is I didn't stick to my plan! Again I saw the price blew through my mental stop lvl without taking it off! I thought about the slippage but still didn't take the action and flipped my position.
-this pattern is exactly like LEI and will happen again and again. The question is are you ready to capitalize it when it comes?!

-My initial desire was to short into strength but way too early and frankly it was not para yet!!
-I thought it was parabolic and the action was stuffing but in reality it was consolidation
-A series of identical size green candles on top range is NEVER a short!!!
-why the fuck I shorted near VWAP??!!!! Wait for the candle gets bigger and faster and the price deviates far the hell above VWAP to initiate short!

-After looking over all the charts of morning players and I've figured out interesting connections between price, volume, VWAP and timeframe!!!! ONLY after taking these 4 factors into consideration, appropriate decision can be produced. 
-eg: when price moves from $1 to $1.50 which is 50% jump:
scenario 1: given the volume is the same, it takes 3-minute(3 candles) to reach it.
scenario 2: given the volume is the same, it takes 10-minute(10 candles) to reach it. 
Scenario 1 has higher probability of pullback. Shorter the timeframe, better chance of pullback.
Farther the price deviates from the VWAP, closer the occurance of pullback and bigger the pullback will happen. 
Combining all is the key elements of shorting morning parabolic: relatively bigger the candle, faster the price movement(momentum), bigger the volume, shorter the duration of price movement, farther away from the VWAP--->high odds of good short!!! 
-Be extremely cautious shorting low float runner coming out of consolidation and massive volume Price-VWAP deviation can possibly be ridiculous: eg KBIO on 11/23: After price-$46, VWAP-$31 before the momentum shifted. The deviation is $15!!!!! Another good example is AQXP. Watch out these black swans!

-It's important to distinguish consolidation from stuffing near the HOD level. I've noticed that near the HOD it's the area to short with the greatest profitability however the same area in LEI and ZFGN's case are the best spot to buy. It's sooooo easy that short-biased traders fall into the big percentage & high price perception trap!!!! By using Price-VWAP Deviation in both cases, I wouldn't incur huge losses like I did. 

-As conclusion: when the volume is big, NEVER EVER think about shorting anywhere close to VWAP-above&under!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Unfortunately this is the mistake I made twice!

-One important change that I will start implementing is I will review the chart LEI, ZFGN, RWLK, AQXP every single morning before 9:30am and start retrospecting!! 20min reviewing and retrospection can save you thousands of dollars, is it worth it??!!!!!! 
Starting today I will keep my blog as simple as possible by only posting bad trades in terms of monetary and operative perspectives.

Tuesday, January 19, 2016

1/19_BSI, AEZS_important lesson!

-bad trade on BSI by emotionally bought it at $6.30 anticipating the squeeze.
-I know this one is very crowded so the squeeze could happen but didn't.
-Yes it was a bad entry but I closed my position due to failed sustaining momentum.
-It's never a good strategy to trade on anticipation!!! focus on reaction!!
-Good trade even though the outcome wasn't great.
-Perfect example that by combining t&s and lvl2 can really portray the picture of it.
-Thickly traded one with massive selling pressure.
-again I threw patience away and covered my position afraid of reclaiming action.

Friday, January 15, 2016

1/15_CDRB, BSI

-incapable of judging the intrinsic value of the news therefore I stay unbiased
-first trade was taking advantage of morning emotion, wait till it peaked at $5.78 and long upwick and noticed by sellers at $5.45 so shorted at $5.44 risking $5.50 over/under. Had my finger on "buy" ready to cover anytime it turned against me and kept ripping.
-the 2nd short was good as well risking VWAP over/under.
-the 3rd one was a stupid chase by shorting into weakness and it turned against me. From level 2 I noticed lots of sellers at different price level-$4.30, $4.35, $4.40 and huge one at $4.50. So I reshorted at $4.40s'ish risking $4.50. ended up holding big position with avg. $4.32. Not ideal but I followed the price action.
-later it was full of choppiness and not breaking down the way I expected so I got out.
-overall good and discipline trade.
-bought yesterday anticipating HOD breakout but got out because it didn't happen. 
-trash company driven by liquidation of assets and huge debt on balance sheet. I knew this one was crowded b/c the price action. the volume and the tweets all over the place. 
-Not holding anything o/n is right thing to do and on hindsight I should have bought some premarket aimed for premarket b/o and started shorting once the momentum shifted. 
-The reason I believe most people refused to short when it was in-play was due to traumatic memory of AQXP and many others not long time ago. 
-but ALWAYS keep stop loss level TIGHT NO MATTER long/short!

Monday, January 11, 2016

1/11_ATV_Another ripped day If I traded

-The past week was the most relaxing and chilled week I had since trading. The relaxation came from being free from the market and not had to go through the struggles and traumatic moments.
-If you are not disciplined and respecting your stop loss level, the market will rip you off!! Even ModernRock lost money on ATV, I am sure a lot of short sellers got fucked today.
-VWAP plays a hugely significant role in trading, $7.60ish is an important level to look at!!! According to my thesis, the price should NEVER touch it doesn't mean that it won't touch it!! It means that putting stop loss order in there is ideally right thing to do!! I am pretty sure a lot of traders where caught near the top couldn't accept the fact that being up alot to breakeven then down alot. If I were trading it, Breakeven or even took a small loss by stopping out is the best action of all! This is the trade that I need to review again and again, day by day so that I can be truely disciplined and do the right things!! I am kinda glad that I wasn't trading today. I am simply not ready to trade under such conditions yet!!!

Friday, January 8, 2016

1/7_INVT

-As psycho on wallst said, "the market is showing different face each day" I can relate so much to what's going on in the market right now in small cap. world. Therefore a good trader adapts!!!!
-Another point that rings my bell is what Greg said, "using technical and fundamental analysis is not enough to decipher what's going on in particular price action." From technical aspect shorting at $2.87 is ideal because it was former resistance but again all the short sellers were making a huge and dangerous assumption that the former resistance is valid. Therefore shorting near $2.87 is okay, seeing big sellers on lvl2 is okay but it doesn't necessarily mean that it won't be broken out. The correct action in today's market is be late!!! Always always be late like Nate said, give it time and let it be tested, retested, peaked out then initiated the short. Remember you can't capture the top and from risk-reward standpoint it's not worth the risk to capture the top!!! Ideal entry is far better than best entry. If I were short I would probably get smoked again. I wouldn't be surprised to see Nikko, Gritani, Alex, Jay and many others in IU chatroom got smoked  and underwater once it broke above $3. Unfortunately this is the market we are in N.O.W. Adapt or perish!!
-It's important to compare INVT with LEI's runup and it peaked out at $3.40 and a few minutes later we got what Derrick JL called "piercing thru resistance"setup and should further reinforce this one's short bias. Bouncing ball analogy works in this case, up and down, up and down, descending triangle accompanies by fading volume. When the VWAP was cracked on big volume and failed to reclaim it was the end of the story. there was another opportunity to short into late day volume recap.
-due to recent insanity the market was crazy and a lot of setup that used to work  don't workout the same way right now!!! Always adapt!!!! Adaptation is the key to success!!
-lastly, recite to yourself: it's okay to miss a trade!! In fact it's better off to miss a trade than jumping on!!! Long or short, ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS KEEP STOP LOSS LEVEL TIGHT NO MATTER WHAT!!!!100% DISCIPLINE IS THE WAY TO SURVIVE IN THIS MARKET!!!

Wednesday, January 6, 2016

1/6_EARS_Big LOSS day Had I had capacity to trade

-Good entry @ $6.96 after saw 400k seller at $6.97 and big selloff after breakout and this is what Derrick JL refers to piercing through resistance type of fake out breakout. So I shorted 1100 shares at $6.96 risking $7 over/under.  At that point everything was great and my risk/reward ratio is good. 
-Then the problem comes quietly as it was holding above VWAP and my usage of IB to short subjects to PDT got me stubbornly holding through the turbulence. 
-I made 2 mistakes: 
1) Didn't take off my position at risk level which sadly was the mistake I made hundreds if not thousands of times. I even made yesterday but pathetically I still do it again. But this time I believe it was due to PDT rule IB imposes. 
2) Each subsequent breakout was weak and seemed like stuffing action but it really was NOT. I had a wrong definition of stuffing: stuffing is not just about big sellers popping up and absorbing the buy orders BUT is when big sell orders stay at one price level and blocking the motion of uptrend. OMER is a perfect example of stuffing action: Remember the stuffing happens at one level ONLY and clearly EARS is NOT stuffing but uptrending after breakout!
-At the end I cut my entire position at $7.40ish. Bad trade!!! I read Craig Trader's blog yesterday and got inspired by it tremendously. He mentioned that there is clear difference between "trade don't workout" and "Bad Trade". this one is obviously bad trade. I had chance to get out but didn't. 
-This is the player that I should better stay away from. when $8 peaked out and followed by big red candles that cracked the VWAP and touched former support EVERYONE must have thought it finally has entered stage of backside but surprisingly it reclaimed and BOOM! I wouldn't be surprised to see bigtime traders lost their asses on it. This thing is completely irrational. So at the end it doesn't matter how smart you are and brilliant your idea and analysis. The ONLY way to trade such thing, doesn't matter long or short, is to keep entry as close as stop loss level and stay calm and 100% discipline. Even if you are wrong you will be fine. 

-This is certainly the most powerful long setup. It reminds me of FXCM recently. Rule: NEVER EVER underestimate the power of daily chart breakout, it can get ridiculously insane!!! I wouldn't be surprised to see this one double-digit tomorrow. 
-In this market, Trading cowardly and keeping stop loss level tight and be 100% discipline is the ONLY way you survive. When I say 100% discipline, I mean hell yeah 100%. Remember Jesse said when you see a train coming at you 80mph you get the fuck off the rail! when things become right you can always get back on!!!! Survival!!! You have to have had reached the level where you just react instead of think!!!!!

Tuesday, January 5, 2016

1/5_EARS_I don't think I can do this

-Traded it using IB, short & long. 
-Took $600ish loss because again I didn't stick with my plan. 
-shorting 1400 shares with avg. $5.65 risking $5.80 that was my initial plan but the price action was so strange!!! It seemed very hard to climb up so to me there is some strong selling pressure out there but I watched it go go go and kept rationalizing and even adding to my initial position. At the end I bailed myself out by triggering stop loss at $6.01. 
-Mistake No.2 I made was flipping to long it after got out. It was lacking of momentum and couldn't move so again I ate another $200 loss by being long. 
-The main LESSON today was again lack of discipline and unfortunately it was the same mistake I made hundreds of times. When stop loss level was reached, just take the shit off!! NO MORE QUESTION IS ASKED!!! This is how the loss gets out of control! simple as that!

Monday, January 4, 2016

1/4_LEI_BLOWUP on New Year's Eve, -$6250

-Whenever have taken a huge hit, dig deep into the root of the problem!

-ready to move to Long Island on the day and told myself to do one last quick trade before starting to pack up and ended up digging myself into a huge and deep hole and blew up my ST account.

-Trading is not sprint, it's a marathon! Whenever I was not in a environmentally and emotionally right state to trade, I ended up taking losses and this one of course is a fatal one..

-There was no reason whatsoever to trade on the day b/c everyone around me was packing up their belongings and walking around in the office. The environment and atmosphere is detrimental to trading but again I was digging my heels and determined to fight which is part of my personality-I've been fighting my entire life: felt intimidated but still made public speech and networked, knew that I was not capable of drinking much and my limit was already reached and passed but still pretending that I could handle it, was fearful and shy in some occasions but still pretended to act naturally,etc. This is who I am and this is my life. I don't disdain my personalities and traits, instead I embrace them! But sometimes if not carefully managed you would just get yourself caught up on it.

-Was reading Brett's book on trading psychology yesterday and I remember the part he was emphasizing "serenity" is crucial to trading success. This is perhaps the piece that I overlooked in my entire last two years. I was in a environment that has been the opposite of serenity which caused me to remain alertful to surroundings while paying attention to the market. In reality It's extremely hard/near impossible to remain consistently profitable under such conditions so loss is highly likely the result. Just no way to maximize one's potential under such conditions.

-Most importantly, even after nearly 2 years of trading experience, still made the most basic and primitive to survival type of mistakes-trading without a plan and not thinking about the stop loss level. It was the same mistake that I made on AQXP, and recently ENPH and RWLK. In fact I was entering trades without consciousness and no plan whatsoever so got caught up in "short and add, add, add" kind of scenario. Even after recently painful experience on ENPH and RWLK I still haven't learned my lesson. It reminded me of Tim Grittani on LAKE, PBMD, and CANF and these 6-figure mistake just got repeated more than once. So how do I avoid such apocalyptic type of losses??!!!! Here is what I am going to do: 1)Meditation each morning-review all the big losses in the past and retrospection. 2)stop loss NO MATTE what!!!! Stop loss order is not valid until you can envision yourself get stopped out and have taken X amount of loss. What makes you follow the rules are when you have mental preparation that it happens and your reactions to it! My weakness is when something dramatically painful and unexpected happens, I freak out and don't know what the hell to do. the ONLY way to get over it is mental preparation and envisioning. So when the stop loss level is reached it becomes natural to take the position off without experiencing further emotional turbulence upon it. Not only that, having a plan B allows me to possibly flip my bias and go long so I can net my trades positive for the day.

-I talked about "Ritualize Trading" before: get up early in the morning, read news/events/catalysts, make plan for the day, look back history into losses, meditate, with mental preparation you are good to go!

-Always go back to the basics and simplicity.
-Never be complacent and confident. The moment you feel great about yourself and the trade is the beginning of the downfall.
-Each trade is independent, every day is brand new day. forget about what happened yesterday!! Get up, stand up, wait for the opportunity, nail it and move the fuck on!!!
-The success of a trade is not judged by P&L but by whether you trade it properly or not. The same applies to a successful trader. Just because a trader made money on 1st year, 2nd year, 3rd year doesn't mean he is successful b/c he may lose it all in his 4th year. In my opinion, Greg who made 1 million in each of two years and realized $700,000 loss in his third year and at one point he was down more than 1 million dollars. And Nikko, a 20-year-old young gun trader who made more than half million in 5 months before took a massive hit -$400,000 on PBMD. So the question is are you good traders??? My answer is "NO". just as what Brat said, a great trader needs to be judged in a lifespan of 30 years. If you can survive in 30 years, you are successful.
-When the single successful and profitable trader lost big, you have to sit down and think about it. Admitting you are human and subject to all the defects and flaws human possesses. The root of the problem comes down to mentality. It's human nature that we don't want to cover near the top especially holding a big position that is already underwater. The deep hole started with being undisciplined and refused to take off the position at risk level. The same mistake unfortunately Tim Grittani made and lost more than half million. Please Please Please do NOT let that happen to you!!! Successful Trading comes down to simplicity: Having a plan and and sticking to the plan!!! Cut the position off at risk level NO MATTER WHAT!!!!!